Analytical Modelling of Fault Seal Effectiveness in Hydrocarbon Reservoirs: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis and Analytical Hierarchy Process Approach
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Abstract
Faults in hydrocarbon reservoirs significantly influence fluid flow behavior, making the prediction of fault seal effectiveness critical in reservoir management. This study introduces the FAULT-SEAL Evaluation Model (FSEM), leveraging a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) and Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) framework. By integrating geological, geophysical, and fluid-related factors, FSEM assigns weights to key parameters, emphasizing the dominant role of clay smears and gouge composition (global weight: 0.8417) in fault-sealing potential. The Shale Gouge Ratio (SGR) and clay content emerged as the most sensitive parameters, with changes of up to 30% impacting fault seal effectiveness by as much as 0.12, underscoring their importance in fluid migration control. Fault throw and offset, with a moderate weight of 0.6262, significantly influenced the juxtaposition of rock types and sealing capacity, while stress conditions, particularly pore pressure (weight: 0.2999), moderately affected seal integrity, highlighting the need to monitor in-situ stress regimes. Validation through sensitivity analysis confirmed the model’s robustness and reliability, with a Consistency Ratio (CR) of -0.0543, ensuring minimal inconsistency in the decision matrix. These findings underscore the critical role of clay-rich fault zones in hydrocarbon trapping and the importance of detailed fault rock characterization. The FSEM offers a scalable, data-driven tool capable of generating faster, more accurate fault seal predictions, advancing exploration and production strategies. By integrating machine learning techniques and decision frameworks, the model provides an innovative approach to optimizing hydrocarbon recovery in faulted reservoirs.
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